It will be at least six weeks before cases of Covid-19 drop to around 100 a day, according to the Chair of NPHET’s Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group.
Professor Philip Nolan said that while case numbers and hospitalisations have reduced, the numbers are still too high.
“Last week by every indicator we had more disease and more severe disease than any point in 2020. We still have 170 people in ICU. That is an extraordinarily high number.”
He said Ireland should be at around 200 to 400 cases a day heading into March and approaching 100 to 200 cases a day by the end of March.
He said both suppressing the virus and increasing protection from the vaccine will come together.
Speaking on RTÉ’s Morning Ireland, Prof Nolan said the bottom line is as people collectively drive case numbers down, it gives the Government options to reopen key priorities.
“Those key priorities are set out and focused on education of young people and ensuring our health service has minimum levels of Covid to deal with,” he said.
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Prof Nolan also said that double masking does give added protection, but is only needed if people are in close proximity with others.
“What is more important is with one mask or two, keep your distance,” he said.
Health Service Executive CEO Paul Reid has said that good trends in the number of cases of Covid-19 are providing some relief in the hospital system.
There were 943 Covid-19 patients being treated in hospital at 8pm yesterday, down from 990 on Wednesday.
NPHET said there are three things to be watch.
Firstly, some indicators are suggesting people are moving about a little more.
Secondly, Covid test positivity rates seem stuck at too high a level.
And thirdly, the rate of decline in daily case numbers has become a little slower.
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn said the disease incidence and mortality rates are still very high and significant risk of community transmission of the virus remains.
It will be at least six weeks before cases of Covid-19 drop to around 100 a day, according to the Chair of NPHET’s Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, Professor Philip Nolan.
